@PhDThesis{DiasdaSilva:2019:ImReAm,
author = "Dias da Silva, Philipp Edson",
title = "Impact of the removal of Amazon Forest on the Southern Hemisphere
storm tracks in future climate",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2019",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2019-05-29",
keywords = "storm track, land use change, HadGEM2-ES, climate change,
projections, mudan{\c{c}}as de uso da terra, mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas, proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es.",
abstract = "The Amazon Forest is one of the most important ecosystems in the
world. The forest plays an important role in the global
hydrological system. Deforestation affects evapotranspiration,
latent heat, river discharges and, consequently, the global
climate. In this study, HadGEM2-ES Earth system model is used to
investigate the impact of the removal of the Amazon Forest on the
storm tracks (STs) of the (HS) in future climate. Firstly, the
recent past climate simulated by HadGEM2-ES is compared to that
indicated by the Era-Interim reanalysis to evaluate the
performance of the model in representing the STs in the HS. Next,
experiments with and without the Amazon Forest under two future
scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are
contrasted against controlled experiments to examine possible
future changes in STs. The HadGEM2-ES has the ability to simulate
well the midlatitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).
However, the model tends to represent the austral winter ST
position with an equatorward bias and a zonal bias in the spiral
towards the pole. The main differences are found during the
austral winter and spring, with large track density biases over
the Indian Ocean indicating a poor representation of the ST in
this specific region. This seems to be related to two factors.
First, the large negative genesis biases over South America,
Antarctic Peninsula and the Antarctic coast. Second, the model
resolution and the representation of the Andes Mountains in South
America. The model generally underestimates the extratropical
cyclone intensity, which in part is related to low spatial
resolution. The future projections show a consistent shift of the
STs in the HS toward the pole, and this is reduced when the Amazon
Forest is removed. The storm track changes under the RCP4.5 are
larger than in the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, the changes are
strongly associated with the mean large-scale circulation,
although the change in the Amazon Forest is on a regional-scale.
When the Amazon Forest is removed, the temperature decreases over
northern South America. There is also a decrease in the total
number of cyclones in the SH and a slight shift of cyclone
intensity distributions toward stronger storms. RESUMO: A Floresta
Amaz{\^o}nica {\'e} um dos ecossistemas mais importantes do
mundo. A floresta desempenha um papel importante no sistema
hidrol{\'o}gico global. O desmatamento afeta a
evapotranspira{\c{c}}{\~a}o, o calor latente, as descargas dos
rios e, consequentemente, o clima global. Neste estudo, o modelo
do sistema terrestre HadGEM2-ES {\'e} utilizado para investigar o
impacto da remo{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica nas
storm tracks (STs) do (HS) no clima futuro. Primeiramente, o clima
passado recente simulado pelo HadGEM2-ES {\'e} comparado ao
indicado pela rean{\'a}lise Era-Interim para avaliar o desempenho
do modelo em representar as STs no HS. Em seguida, experimentos
com e sem a Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica, sob dois cen{\'a}rios
futuros Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), s{\~a}o
contrastados com experimentos controlados para examinar
poss{\'{\i}}veis mudan{\c{c}}as futuras nas STs. O HadGEM2-ES
tem a capacidade de simular bem as STs nas latitudes m{\'e}dias
no Hemisf{\'e}rio Sul. No entanto, o modelo tende a representar a
posi{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos ciclones durante o inverno austral com um
vi{\'e}s para o equador e apresenta um vi{\'e}s zonal na espiral
em dire{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao p{\'o}lo. As principais
diferen{\c{c}}as foram encontradas durante o inverno e a
primavera austral, com grandes vieses de densidade de
trajet{\'o}rias sobre o Oceano {\'{\I}}ndico, indicando uma
representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o pobre das STs nessa regi{\~a}o
espec{\'{\i}}fica. Isso parece estar relacionado a dois fatores.
Primeiro, o grande vi{\'e}s negativo na g{\^e}nese sobre a
Am{\'e}rica do Sul, a Pen{\'{\i}}nsula Ant{\'a}rtica e a costa
da Ant{\'a}rtica. Em segundo lugar, a resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do
modelo e a representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Cordilheira dos Andes na
Am{\'e}rica do Sul. O modelo geralmente subestima a intensidade
dos ciclones extratropicais, o que em parte est{\'a} relacionado
{\`a} baixa resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial. As
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras mostram um desvio consistente das
STs do HS em dire{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao polo, e isso {\'e} reduzido
quando a Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica {\'e} removida. As
mudan{\c{c}}as nas STs sob o cen{\'a}rio RCP4.5 s{\~a}o maiores
do que as do RCP8.5. Em geral, as mudan{\c{c}}as est{\~a}o
fortemente associadas {\`a} circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o m{\'e}dia em
grande escala, embora a mudan{\c{c}}a na Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica
esteja em escala regional. Quando a Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica {\'e}
removida, a temperatura diminui no norte da Am{\'e}rica do Sul.
Ocorre, tamb{\'e}m, uma diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o no n{\'u}mero
total de ciclones no HS e um leve deslocamento das
distribui{\c{c}}{\~o}es de intensidade de ciclones em
dire{\c{c}}{\~a}o a tempestades mais fortes.",
committee = "von Randow, Celso (presidente) and Coutinho, Mariane Mendes
(orientadora) and Hodges, Kevin Ivan (orientador) and Ferreira,
Nelson Jesuz and Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Vasconcellos,
Fernanda Cerqueira",
englishtitle = "Impacto da remo{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica nas
storm tracks do Hemisf{\'e}rio Sul no clima futuro",
language = "en",
pages = "241",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3TAJ4MB",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3TAJ4MB",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}